1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
thinking fast and slow        
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2373360-1-1.html
2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Speaking of Rare Events
“Tsunamis are very rare even in Japan, but the image is so vivid and compelling that tourists are bound to overestimate their probability.”
“It’s the familiar disaster cycle. Begin by exaggeration and overweighting, then neglect sets in.”
“We shouldn’t focus on a single scenario, or we will overestimate its probability. Let’s set up specific alternatives and make the probabilities add up to 100%.”
“They want people to be worried by the risk. That’s why they describe it as 1 death per 1,000. They’re counting on denominator neglect.”
3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
人们总是夸大一些概率,尤其是负面的,事故性的,于是政治和商业中就可以上下其手了
4.昨日你阅读的时间量(小时计算,如0.5小时)
1小时
5.你参与活动至今的总时间量(小时计算,如20小时)
80小时