| Dependent Variable: Y | | |
| Method: Least Squares | | |
| Date: 05/18/16 Time: 12:35 | | |
| Sample: 1986 2014 | | |
| Included observations: 29 | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| C | 480.1260 | 1115.027 | 0.430596 | 0.6708 |
| X1 | -0.175738 | 0.412739 | -0.425786 | 0.6742 |
| X2 | 0.038158 | 0.063404 | 0.601821 | 0.5532 |
| X3 | -0.066260 | 0.082898 | -0.799294 | 0.4323 |
| X4 | 0.605800 | 0.116147 | 5.215804 | 0.0000 |
| X5 | -0.221121 | 0.109591 | -2.017689 | 0.0554 |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| R-squared | 0.942878 | Mean dependent var | 7077.250 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.930461 | S.D. dependent var | 7601.802 |
| S.E. of regression | 2004.620 | Akaike info criterion | 18.22629 |
| Sum squared resid | 92425523 | Schwarz criterion | 18.50918 |
| Log likelihood | -258.2812 | Hannan-Quinn criter. | 18.31489 |
| F-statistic | 75.92989 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.467870 |
| Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000000 | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
在做国债发行规模的影响因素分析，选取解释变量x1-5：财政赤字、gdp、居民储蓄年底余额、国债余额、财政收入因为有多重共线性问题，用ols选出最优模型，五个变量最大拟合是国债余额，拟合在88%的样子，紧接着加入x1(财政赤字) x2（gdp） x3（储蓄）都是负相关，问题出在哪了呀？
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