<p>􀀗 ASPs are likely to remain strong. We<br/>raise our LCD TV shipment forecast 7%,<br/>to 123m units<br/>􀀗 Tight supply should last till 4Q09, with<br/>inventory levels remaining healthy<br/>through year-end<br/>􀀗 Reiterate our OW(V) on AUO, LGD, and<br/>Sharp<br/>A continued earnings recovery is the main potential<br/>catalyst ahead. Our LCD earnings forecasts are far ahead of<br/>consensus (please refer to the table on page 5). We believe<br/>consensus numbers will rise following a continued panel<br/>price recovery and catalyse share price performance.<br/>Stronger-than-expected LCD TV demand. We have raised<br/>our 2009 global LCD TV shipment forecast to 123m units<br/>(17% y-o-y) versus our original forecast of 115m units (13%<br/>y-o-y) on better 1Q09 demand. Our LCD TV volume<br/>forecast is at the low end of consensus due to inadequate<br/>expected panel supply. We see demand from China as the<br/>main driver for LCD TV in the next few years.<br/>Tight supply should last till 4Q09, with inventory under<br/>control. Despite panel makers having moved ahead their<br/>new capacity ramp-up schedule, this added only limited<br/>incremental supply to our global LCD supply model and<br/>believe the supply shortage will last till 4Q09 with the<br/>supply chain inventory well under control.<br/>OW(V) on AUO, LGD, and Sharp; UW(V) on Innolux and<br/>Novatek. Our OW(V) call is supported by a favourable industry<br/>outlook and undemanding valuations. Our UW(V) call on<br/>Innolux and Novatek is mainly on expensive 2009 valuations,<br/>and we believe it is too early to factor in the 2010 outlook.</p><p>Improving consumer demand<br/>We are upbeat on 1Q09 global LCD<br/>TV demand<br/>According to Display Search, 1Q09 global LCD<br/>TV shipments reached 26.7m units (down 20%<br/>q-o-q, up 27% y-o-y), better than our original<br/>expectation of 22.5m units and consensus of<br/>21-25m units. Strong demand from China and<br/>healthy demand from North American and Europe<br/>were the main reason behind the strong results.<br/>Raising our 2009 LCD TV shipment<br/>forecast 7%, to 123m units<br/>The improved consumer demand in 1Q09<br/>suggests to us that price elasticity of demand for<br/>LCD TV has kicked in after the significant retail<br/>price decline in 4Q08. As we expect the retail<br/>price to fall 15-20% for 32- to 37-inch LCD TVs<br/>(year-end versus year-end) and 20-30% for 40- to<br/>50-inch LCD TVs in 2009, we believe consumer<br/>demand for LCD TVs will remain robust and lift<br/>our global LCD TV shipment forecast to 123m<br/>units (representing 17% growth) from our original<br/>forecast of 115m units (13% growth). We expect<br/>the LCD TV penetration rate in the whole</p><p>TV market to rise to 64% in 2009 from 51% in<br/>2008. Our LCD TV unit shipment forecasts are at<br/>the low end of consensus due to our concerns<br/>about inadequate panel supply.<br/>Although we have not raised our earnings<br/>estimates, we believe strong LCD TV demand<br/>could produce an upside surprise in the panel<br/>price recovery in 2H09 as well as improved<br/>profitability.</p><p> <br/></p><p></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-5-27 13:29:15编辑过]