摩根士丹利的研究报告


Table of Contents
1.A Six-month Journey From Overheating to Hard Landing4-8
2.China Forecast Snapshot9
3.Real Aggregate Activity –Industrial Sectors Landed Hard10-11
4.Sentiment and Leading Indicators –Prevalent Pessimism12-15
5.Price Developments –Sharp Decline in Headline Inflation16-18
6.Monetary Indicators –Sharp Fall in M1 Growth 19-21
7.Income andConsumption–Still Resilient22-25
8.Investment –Remain Resilient So Far26-27
9.Industrial Production, Sales, and Inventory –Harding Landing28-30
10.Industrial Profitability –Marked Deterioration Broadening31-32
11.External Trade –Record Trade Surplus On the Back of Plunge in Imports33-38
12.Foreign Direct Investment –FDI Inflows Declined39
13.Foreign Reserves –Counting “Hot Money”40
14.Exchange Rate –Softening Against USD; Strong Depreciation Expectations41
15.Financial and Property Markets –Sluggish Property Sales; Property Prices Peaked42-44
16.Global Forecasts and Markets Snapshot45-48
17.Recent China Economics Reports49