The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis

Kent Moors



How oil volatility is affecting the global political scene, and where the oil market is heading

The world is rapidly moving towards an oil environment defined by volatility. The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis takes an in-depth look at the most important topics in the industry, including strategic risk, why traditional pricing mechanisms will no longer govern the market, and how the current government approaches have only worsened an already bad situation.

• Details the industry's players, including companies, traders, and governments
• Describes the priorities that will need to be revised, and the policies needed to achieve stability
• Explains how today's oil market is fundamentally different from the pre-crisis market

Oil prices affect everyone. The Vega Factor explains the new international oil environment of increasing consolidation and decreasing competition, and reveals how consumers and investors can navigate price volatility and new government policies.

Table of Contents

Preface.

Chapter 1 The Meaning of Oil Vega.

Chapter 2 How Oil Volatility Relates to Strategic Risk.

Chapter 3 Determining Oil Prices.

Chapter 4 Dollars, Credit, Financial Crises,. . . and the Oil Connection.

Chapter 5 Oil Companies and the Upstream/Downstream Tradeoff.

Chapter 6 How Government Action Increases Volatility.

Chapter 7 Is There a Response?

Appendix A: World Proved Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels).

Appendix B:  Exxon CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix C: Exxon ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix D: Shell CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix E: Shell ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix F: BP CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix G: BP ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Notes.

About the Author.

Index.