请大家帮帮忙了,我做的多元回归,回归结果有点不理想,就是AR(3)的系数检验未通过,该如何修正啊?而且各时间序列均做过平稳性检验了,残差序列存在自相关,阶数不能确定,请大家指教!
回归结果如下:
Dependent Variable: D(Y(-1))
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/13/09 Time: 18:50
Sample (adjusted): 1990 2007
Included observations: 18 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 95 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(M(-1)) -0.110746 0.020429 -5.421129 0.0003
D(L(-1)) -0.218420 0.081123 -2.692449 0.0226
D(A1(-1)) 0.189331 0.049261 3.843420 0.0032
D(A2(-1)) 0.668065 0.336223 1.986968 0.0750
C 0.031842 0.005687 5.599318 0.0002
AR(1) -1.321150 0.288044 -4.586625 0.0010
AR(2) -1.204968 0.352373 -3.419578 0.0066
AR(3) -0.564792 0.334418 -1.688883 0.1221
R-squared 0.889697 Mean dependent var 0.051743
Adjusted R-squared 0.812485 S.D. dependent var 0.039165
S.E. of regression 0.016959 Akaike info criterion -5.014887
Sum squared resid 0.002876 Schwarz criterion -4.619166
Log likelihood 53.13398 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.960322
F-statistic 11.52279 Durbin-Watson stat 2.150252
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000452
Inverted AR Roots -.30-.83i -.30+.83i -.73