《Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution》

此篇论论文发表在2015年Economic Modelling上。 作者在文中使用滞后变量（ADL）模型和向量误差修正（VECM）模型分析了中国生产总值和其对煤、石油、以及可再生能源使用之间的关系。

要点

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Long-run bi-directional causality between energy use of each type and economic growth

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Uni-directional causality found running from only coal to pollutant emission

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Long-run impact on emissions positive for coal but negative for renewable energy

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Negative own-price and positive cross-price elasticity for each energy source

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Good prospects for price-led substitution from coal and oil to renewable energy

简要

We examine the relationship between Chinese aggregate production and consumption of three main energy commodities: coal, oil and renewable energy. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction modeling (VECM) show that Chinese growth is led by all three energy sources. Economic growth also causes coal, oil and renewables consumption, but with negative own-price effects for coal and oil and a strong possibility of fuel substitution through positive cross-price effects. The results further show coal consumption causing pollution, while renewable energy consumption reduces emissions. No significant causation on emissions is found for oil. Hence, making coal both absolutely and relatively expensive compared to oil and renewable energy encourages shifting from coal to oil and renewable energy, thereby improving economic and environmental sustainability.