Table of Contents
Nordic banks: Bear rally or turning point ........................................ 3
Nordic banks valuation..............................................................................................................3
Q1 numbers: Super trading and stable LLPs a false dawn .......................................................5
Eastern Europe: IMF rescue does not equal recovery ..............................................................9
Capital: Nordics well-capitalised – Danske Bank still at risk ....................................................18
Danske Bank..................................................................................... 19
Q1 should be saved by super trading – capital risk remains ...................................................19
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................21
DnB NOR .......................................................................................... 23
Profitable even in extreme scenario and 2009 year of cost cuts ............................................23
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................24
Handelsbanken ................................................................................ 26
Defensive qualities and growth potential post-crisis...............................................................26
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................27
Nordea.............................................................................................. 29
Loan losses back-end loaded..................................................................................................29
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................31
SEB.................................................................................................... 33
Well-capitalised in extreme scenario vs. fears of Baltic ..........................................................33
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................34
Swedbank ........................................................................................ 36
IMF package cannot stop Baltic downturn..............................................................................36
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................39