Table of Contents
Four projects, five pictures ............................................................... 3
Executive Summary........................................................................... 4
A window of opportunity opens in Asia....................................................................................4
Four Projects............................................................................................................................5
Implications for the European Integrateds ................................................................................7
Racing to the FID line........................................................................ 8
US$70 billion of capital spending set to be launched ...............................................................8
A window of opportunity ........................................................................................................10
Four Projects..........................................................................................................................11
All Asian but equally all quite different ....................................................................................13
Four projects – How do the financials compare?....................................................................15
Four projects – estimating the sensitivities.............................................................................16
Appendix A: The projects................................................................ 20
Modeling the potential ............................................................................................................20
Papua New Guinea LNG ................................................................. 21
Background............................................................................................................................21
Pro’s and cons ........................................................................................................................22
Key financial observations.......................................................................................................23
Gorgon LNG..................................................................................... 25
Background............................................................................................................................25
Pro’s and cons ........................................................................................................................27
Key financial observations.......................................................................................................27
Queensland Curtis LNG .................................................................. 29
Background............................................................................................................................29
Pro’s and con’s .......................................................................................................................31
Key financial observations.......................................................................................................31
Ichthys LNG...................................................................................... 33
Background............................................................................................................................33
Pro’s and con’s .......................................................................................................................35
Key financial observations.......................................................................................................35
Appendix B – The basics of LNG .................................................... 37
Overview................................................................................................................................37
LNG - The process and the chain ............................................................................................39
LNG – returns across the chain...............................................................................................40
Pricing of LNG.........................................................................................................................42
Costs of LNG Production ........................................................................................................44
Shipping of LNG......................................................................................................................45
Re-gasification of LNG ............................................................................................................46
Existing LNG facilities and facilities planned 2006-12+................ 48
LNG - The IOCs Portfolios and Positions ................................................................................50
The IOC majors compared ......................................................................................................52
Appendix C: Investment Thesis...................................................... 53
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................53
Valuation ................................................................................................................................53
Risks ......................................................................................................................................53