Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 5
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................5
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................6
Initiating coverage on Greek refineries ........................................... 7
Challenging outlook: we rate Motor Oil a Hold and Hellenic Petroleum a Sell..........................7
Valuation .......................................................................................... 10
DCF cross-checked with multiples and mid-cycle RoCE/EPS .................................................10
Mid-cycle EPS and implied valuation ......................................................................................15
Mid-cycle EPS and implied valuation ......................................................................................20
Oil refining peers.....................................................................................................................22
Risks ......................................................................................................................................24
Greek oil and refining market......................................................... 27
Energy-intensive country; concentrated refining; fragmented marketing ...............................27
European outlook....................................................................................................................33
Motor Oil .......................................................................................... 34
Company description ..............................................................................................................34
Strategy..................................................................................................................................37
Refining..................................................................................................................................38
Marketing...............................................................................................................................39
Korinthos Power (energy)........................................................................................................40
Debt position ..........................................................................................................................41
Capex.....................................................................................................................................42
Forecasts ...............................................................................................................................43
Financials ...............................................................................................................................46
Management and shareholding structure ...............................................................................48
Hellenic Petroleum .......................................................................... 49
Company description ..............................................................................................................49
Strategy..................................................................................................................................52
Refining & Marketing ..............................................................................................................53
Petrochemicals .......................................................................................................................56
Exploration & production ........................................................................................................57
Gas & power ...........................................................................................................................57
Debt position ..........................................................................................................................58
Capex.....................................................................................................................................60
Forecasts ...............................................................................................................................60
Financials ...............................................................................................................................62
Management & shareholding structure ..................................................................................64
Key financials ................................................................................... 66
Motor Oil................................................................................................................................66
Hellenic Petroleum..................................................................................................................67
Appendix A: Quarterly statements ................................................ 68
Motor Oil................................................................................................................................68
Hellenic Petroleum..................................................................................................................70
Appendix B: Company milestones................................................. 73
Motor Oil................................................................................................................................73
Hellenic Petroleum..................................................................................................................73
Appendix C: Cracks and margins ................................................... 75