Table of Contents
Have we bottomed yet?.................................................................... 4
Yes; in this order: cement, long steel, flat steel, and metals.....................................................4
4Q08-1Q09 likely to be the margins’ trough .............................................................................5
4Q08 likely to be the valuations’ trough....................................................................................6
Cement: on a steady recovery........................................................ 14
Cement prices rebounding......................................................................................................14
Higher cement price assumptions ..........................................................................................14
Margins to expand in FY09-10 ................................................................................................16
Steel: nearing the bottom............................................................... 18
The destocking and restocking story ......................................................................................18
The supply and demand model...............................................................................................19
We expect a better 2H09........................................................................................................22
Metals: hints of stability ................................................................. 24
Have we bottomed yet? .........................................................................................................24
Demand: the China factor .......................................................................................................25
Supply: output economics ......................................................................................................26
Copper ...................................................................................................................................28
Aluminium..............................................................................................................................30
Deutsche Bank metal price forecasts .....................................................................................32
Company pages ............................................................................... 33
China Building Materials................................................................. 34
Anhui Conch Cement ...................................................................... 42
Zijin Group. ...................................................................................... 50
Chalco............................................................................................... 58
Jiangxi Copper................................................................................. 66
China Moly ....................................................................................... 74
Angang Steel.................................................................................... 80
Maanshan......................................................................................... 90
Monthly data.................................................................................... 99
Cement ..................................................................................................................................99
Steel.....................................................................................................................................100
Metals..................................................................................................................................103