Key forecasts 6
Monetary & fiscal policy
assumptions 7
And now for the hard part… 8
An unlikely tale 8
Out of the loop, but not out of the woods 9
An uneasy truce 9
Pluses and minuses 10
A revival in the Middle Kingdom… 10
…is boosting commodity imports… 11
…but with limited impact on world trade… 11
…or indeed global imbalances 12
The rise in oil prices… 13
…implies the end of the boost to real incomes… 13
…but spare capacity makes it hard to generate inflation 14
Woods and trees 15
Big improvement, small cheer 15
Recent history of little value 16
Reshaping the future, and the past 17
Recent balance sheet adjustment has been rapid… 18
…but over-indebtedness is a constraint 19
A very visible challenge 21
Assuming the burden… 21
…whatever that entails 22
Money back not guaranteed! 22
A question of supply and demand 23
It’s all in the timing 24
Concluding themes 25
Global economic forecasts 27
GDP 28
Consumer prices 30
Short rates 32
Long rates 33
Exchange rates vs USD 34
Exchange rate vs EUR & GBP 35
Consumer spending 36
Investment spending 37
Exports 38
Industrial production 39
Wage growth 40
Budget balance 41
Current account 42
Country and territory sections
US 44
Canada 46
Mexico 48
Brazil 49
Argentina 50
Chile 51
Eurozone 52
Germany 54
France 56
Italy 58
Spain 60
UK 62
Norway 64
Sweden 65
Switzerland 66
Hungary 67
Poland 68
Romania 69
Russia 70
Turkey 71
Saudi Arabia 72
South Africa 73
Japan 74
Australia 76
New Zealand 77
China 78
Hong Kong SAR 79
India 80
Indonesia 81
Malaysia 82
Philippines 83
Singapore 84
South Korea 85
Taiwan 86
Thailand 87
Vietnam 88
Disclosure appendix 90
Disclaimer 91
Contents