In this “Prospects” edition, Citi’s research team presents updated forecasts for
economic growth, inflation and other economic variables, interest rates, FX rates,
commodity prices, and sovereign ratings around the world for 2017 and beyond. We
also present overview essays on: 1) The global economic outlook and risks, 2) The
key political trends and themes in 2017, 3) Fiscal policy in the advanced economies
(AEs), 4) AE monetary policy, 5) AE inflation, 6) ‘Trumponomics’’ impact on EMs, 7)
The outlook for China, 8) Brexit, 9) House prices, and 10) Commodity prices. We
also include a discussion of the major risks to the outlook, a review of our forecasts
from the previous year and a calendar of major events in 2017.
 We highlight five major themes and one key uncertainty for the global outlook: (1)
increasing Vox Populi risks and rising AE political risk, (2) increasingly expansionary
fiscal policy in AEs, (3) increasing opposition to globalization, (4) the end of the
Great AE Monetary Easing Cycle, (5) rising AE inflation, and (6) uncertainty over
whether the incipient EM rebound could survive a changing and potentially
challenging AE policy mix.