[size=12.000000pt]When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications forChina
Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin
NBER Working Paper No. 16919
                                        [size=12.000000pt]March 2011
JEL No. F00,O10,O4
                                        [size=12.000000pt]ABSTRACT
                                        [size=12.000000pt]Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economiesslow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in thesense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomesreach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieveby or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likelyin countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.