Table of Contents
Hard Market Exposure Positive, But Not For Much Longer .......................................3
Our Methodology.........................................................................................................5
Accident-Year Reserve Analysis: “Timing Is Everything” .........................................5
Mix Helpful in Clarifying Leverage Analysis ...........................................................12
Economic Value in Reserves .....................................................................................19
Valuations Only Reflect Mark-to-Market, Not Development....................................22
Risks to Our View......................................................................................................25
Appendix: Individual Company Data ....................................28
ACE Limited (ACE: OW).........................................................29
Allied World Holdings (AWH: N)............................................32
Allstate Corp. (ALL: UW)........................................................35
American International Group (AIG: NR)..............................37
Arch Capital (ACGL: N) ..........................................................40
Axis Capital (AXS: N) .............................................................42
Chubb Corp. (CB: UW) ...........................................................44
CNA Financial (CNA: NR).......................................................47
Endurance Specialty (ENH: OW)...........................................49
Everest Re (RE: OW) ..............................................................51
First Mercury (FMR: OW) .......................................................53
Hartford Financial (HIG: NR)..................................................55
Markel Corp. (MKL: NR) .........................................................57
Montpelier (MRH: N)...............................................................60
OneBeacon (OB: NR) .............................................................62
Odyssey Re (ORH: NR) ..........................................................64
PartnerRe (PRE: OW) .............................................................66
Platinum Underwriters (PTP: N) ............................................68
Progressive Corp. (PGR: UW) ...............................................70
Transatlantic Holdings (TRH: NR).........................................72
Travelers Companies (TRV: N)..............................................74
Validus Re (VR).......................................................................77
WR Berkley. (WRB: NR) .........................................................79
XL Capital (XL: N) ...................................................................81