Investment summary 3
Three key value drivers 3
Valuation and ratings 5
Long-term growth strategies 9
The need for a clear strategy 9
Geography and consumer 10
Property ownership 14
Implications for our valuation 14
Near-term earnings outlook 17
Operating revenue 17
Profit margins 21
EPS growth and implications for our valuation 23
Earnings sensitivity analysis 23
FCF and capex 24
ROE analysis 25
ROE and implications for our valuation 26
Valuation and ratings 27
Valuation methodology 27
Fair value and ratings 29
Company profiles 31
Parkson (3368) 32
Golden Eagle (3308) 43
NWDS (825) 53
Intime (1833) 64
Maoye (848) 74
Appendix 1: The recovery begins 84
Appendix 2. Industry overview 87
Appendix 3: Emerging market
department stores 90
Appendix 4. HSBC China
Consumer Universe 93
Disclosure appendix 99
Disclaimer 103
Contents