DEUTSCHE_BANK12月9日报告,47页。
China has seen a significant jump in the debt-to-GDP ratio after the GFC in 2008.We are not particularly worried about the headline debt ratio and think it may rise further in the coming years,considering 1)China enjoys higher-than-GDP deposit growth thanks to persistent trade surplus and a very high savings rate,and 2)credits(instead of equity)have been the dominating financing channel.Other Asian economies(Japan and Korea)have seen a similar fast debt pile-up historically when they run at high savings rates.