Metals & Mining Call
Long-Term Outlook Improving;
Selectivity Required Near Term
What's Changed
BTU Price Target To $40 from $38
Range-bound equity volatility is likely to persist
through summer as investors balance improving
fundamentals against concerns about the shape of
recovery, dollar strength, and a sense that the materials
rally has lost momentum.
Medium-term metals price drivers robust. Our global
commodities team has revised price forecasts on signs
of a metals price recovery in 1H09 (see Global Metals
Playbook, July 1). In base metals, copper is our
preferred exposure; in bulk commodities, metallurgical
(“met”) coal, as structural issues in Chinese domestic
markets may lead to sustainably higher imports.
Near-term price risk could create opportunities.
Chinese demand for strategic reserves and commercial
restocking has supported metals pricing. This is
consistent with a view that stimulus and easing credit
are positive for demand, yet we believe the size of the
China impact leaves fundamentals vulnerable to a
correction. We think weak dollar and inflation risks will
remain investment themes. We would use pullbacks as
opportunities to build positions levered to commodities
where we are most constructive: copper and met coal.
Top picks: Peabody, US Steel. We like BTU and X, as
we think both can benefit from improving fundamentals
and are undervalued relative to mid-cycle earnings. BTU
is the only US coal miner with direct exposure to
Asia-Pacific markets, where we are bullish. X is among
the most levered plays to the recovery in steel pricing
that we expect.
Pullback plays: Freeport and Walter. FCX is a core
holding, but it is trading at ~11x 2010e EPS at $2.50/lb
copper; we would be buyers near $40. WLT is a low-cost,
hard coking coal pure play, but the stock could trade off if
planned expansions are delayed beyond early 2010; we
would view this as a buying opportunity.