CONTENTS
Executive Summary 3
The Party’s On 4
Confidence On The Ground Improves But Still Fragile 5
Stimulus Packages – A Wild Card 7
New Iron Ore Benchmark: A Key Determinant Of Steel Prices 11
Onward To Normal Margins In FY10 12
Prudent In Shipment Assumptions 14
Earnings Revision With Downward Bias 15
Retain Valuation Parameters But Roll Over To FY10 17
Investment Recommendation – Sell Expensive, Buy Cheap 19
Appendix I: Investment Risks 21
Appendix II: Global Peer Matrix 22
Ann Joo Resources: A Blessing In Steel Prices Recovery 23
Kinsteel: Some Help From Cheaper Material 25
Lion Industries Corporation: Leading Player But Laggard Valuation 27
Malaysia Steel Works (KL): Small, But Perfect Size During Downturn 29
Perwaja Holdings: Back In The Sweet Spot? 31
Southern Steel: Limited Capacity A Relief In A Downturn 33