TABLE OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................7
DEFINING THE INDUSTRY.........................................................................................................................17
INDUSTRY SIZE: THE ADDRESSABLE MARKET OPPORTUNITY...........................................................21
GEOGRAPHIC MARKETS................................................................................................................21
HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE SALES SPLIT ................................................................................23
SOFTWARE VS. OTHER ENTERTAINMENT SECTORS................................................................23
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS...........................................................................................................................26
WIDENING AGE DEMOGRAPHIC ...................................................................................................26
RAPID TEEN GROWTH....................................................................................................................28
FEMALE MARKET...........................................................................................................................28
INCREASING YOUTH INCOME .......................................................................................................28
HARDWARE PLATFORMS.........................................................................................................................30
HOME CONSOLES..........................................................................................................................31
WHY THIS IS LIKELY THE LAST CONSOLE CYCLE......................................................................49
HANDHELD, PORTABLE AND MOBILE CONSOLES......................................................................52
MONEY FOR NOTHING ...............................................................................................................................59
ONLIVE COULD CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE.................................................................................61
THERE MAY NOT BE ANOTHER CONSOLE CYCLE (BUT LOTS AND LOTS OF CONSOLE
SKUS) ..............................................................................................................................................62
DIGITAL DOWNLOADS ARE HERE AND NOW ..............................................................................64
THE WII PLUS (HD) IS COMING (EVENTUALLY) ...........................................................................65
THE XBOX 360 COULD END UP A WINNER, EVEN IN THIRD PLACE..........................................67
THE NEW, DIGITAL PSP IS NOT QUITE DEAD, YET, (OR IS IT?).................................................69
THE NEW DSI WILL ADVANCE THE BRAND..................................................................................69
BLIZZARD IS THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF ONLINE GAMING...............................................70
IN-GAME ADVERTISING IS NOT A BIG DEAL................................................................................73
DIGITAL DOWNLOADS WILL LIMIT GAMESTOP’S GROWTH.......................................................75
FREE-TO-PLAY GAMES HAVE POTENTIAL...................................................................................79
MOBILE PHONE GAMES ARE A FAD .............................................................................................80
POST SCRIPT—LESSONS NOT LEARNED FROM THE LAST CONSOLE CYCLE.......................81
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................82
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION .....................................................................................................................83
M&A DOESN’T MAKE SENSE..........................................................................................................83
COMPETITION FROM MEDIA COMPANIES DOESN’T MAKE SENSE ..........................................84
VIDEO GAME HARDWARE FORECAST .....................................................................................................89
PERSONAL COMPUTER VIDEO GAMES........................................................................................95
SOFTWARE ECONOMICS ...........................................................................................................................97
RETAIL PRICING TRENDS...............................................................................................................97
PRODUCTION COSTS ...................................................................................................................101
SOFTWARE GENRES ...............................................................................................................................106
CONTENT OVERVIEW ...............................................................................................................................115
BRAND...........................................................................................................................................115
GAME PLAY...................................................................................................................................117
GENRE...........................................................................................................................................117
TARGET DEMOGRAPHIC..............................................................................................................120
“BUZZ”............................................................................................................................................123
CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................123
SOFTWARE GROWTH FORECAST ..........................................................................................................124
INVESTING IN SOFTWARE PUBLISHERS................................................................................................131
INDUSTRY PRICE PERFORMANCE..........................................................................................................132
HISTORICAL INDUSTRY RETURNS..............................................................................................132
REVENUE SIZE AND GROWTH.................................................................................................................134
COMPANY STRATEGIES..........................................................................................................................136
PLATFORM FOCUS........................................................................................................................136
DEVELOPMENT ASSETS...............................................................................................................139
DEVELOPMENT SYNERGIES........................................................................................................140
THIRD-PARTY DISTRIBUTION ......................................................................................................141
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION OF REVENUES...............................................................................141
ONLINE STRATEGIES....................................................................................................................142
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY STRATEGIES ..................................................................................143
CONTENT COMPARISON.........................................................................................................................148
BRAND BUILDING ..........................................................................................................................148
TOP BRANDS OF 2008 ..................................................................................................................148
TOP BRANDS BY COMPANY.........................................................................................................149
ACCOUNTING ISSUES..............................................................................................................................152
CAPITALIZED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT AND PREPAID ROYALTIES ..................................152
RESERVES....................................................................................................................................154
UPSTARTS AND STARTUPS.....................................................................................................................156
COVERED PUBLICLY TRADED INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANIES.................................158
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD (ATVI) ......................................................................................................159
ELECTRONIC ARTS (ERTS)..........................................................................................................162