联合国贸易和发展会议7月22日发布《world investment prospects survey 2009-2011》

Book information
UN Symbol: UNCTAD/DIAE/IA/2009/8
Date of publication: 22/07/09
No. of pages: 85

Highlights

The focus of this year′s World Investment Prospects Survey is the global economic and financial crisis and its impact on the FDI plans of TNCs.

UNCTAD surveyed a sample of 240 company executives from the largest non-financial TNCs about the effect of the crisis on their international investment strategies during the next three years.

Summary of the main findings from WIPS 2009-2011:

Global FDI outlook in 2009

Due to the negative impact of the ongoing economic and financial crisis and major uncertainties regarding its evolution in the short term, companies expect a short decline in their FDI expenditures in 2009.

Global FDI outlook in the Medium Term

TNCs seemed rather optimistic about the evolution of the global economic outlook in the medium term, and appeared willing to continue internationalizing their operations. They might therefore progressively resume their investment plans, albeit only moderately in 2010 and gaining momentum in 2011.

FDI prospects by home region.

The "decrease-then-rebound" pattern in TNCs′ investment plans for 2009-2011 seems similar across all regions. However, companies from emerging economies appear to be slightly more optimistic than those from developed countries, especially the European countries.

FDI prospects by industry.

TNCs in industries sensitive to the business cycle, which have been severely affected by the crisis, such as automotives, metals and chemicals, are among those that expressed the most negative views concerning their FDI plans. Even in les affected industries, such as pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and most service industries, the crisis has had a significantly negative impact on their investments plans.

FDI prospects by host region.

Developed countries in Europe and North America may be severely affected by the downsizing of TNCs′ investment plans and by their increasing preferences for emerging economies. However, they still enjoy major advantages in terms of market size and business environment, thus remaining among the top priority countries for investors.

This report is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 provides an assessment of the global FDI outlook for 2009-2011. Chapters 2 and 3 offer insights into specific trends by home region and industry respectively, and Chapter 4 focuses on prospects by host region and country.