Macquarie 1月17日长篇，71页。
　　Global real GDP growth is forecast to remain in“the long grinding cycle”of 2.5-3.0% pa，chart below，but has moved from near the lower bound to near the upper bound.Our 2016，2017 and 2018 global real GDP growth forecasts are 2.6%，3.0% and 2.9%，respectively.Further upside is constrained by a maturing industrial recovery，debt structures which are limiting growth globally，and the ongoing China growth fade.This underpins our fair-value cycle high US 10-year bond yield forecast of 2.7%.For China’s policy-makers，the most important issue in 2017 is the ongoing political transition，the overhaul of the current political governance structure.Unsurprisingly，a stable economic backdrop is desirable.After 6.7% real GDP growth in 2016，we forecast 6.5% this year and 6.0% in 2018，pages 2-4.Since China is entering a property down-cycle，the economy will experience stronger headwinds in the months ahead.