Deutsche Bank 1月19日长篇。
　　With the Trump inauguration only days away，consensus forecasts forthe US economy still have changed relatively little since just before thesurprise outcome of the US presidential election.Our own house view onthe US outlook di？ers.It sees a signi？cant lift in US growth over the nexttwo years stimulated by the combined e？ects of deregulation，tax cuts，and greater ？scal spending especially on infrastructure and defense.Thepickup in growth depends in part on so called“animal spirits”or a liftin private spending generated by the perception that policy changes willresult in a substantially improved economic environment.Our objectivein this GEP is to consider evidence that there is a precedent for thisphenomenon in recent US economic history.