Table of Contents
Investment case........................................................................3
Shareprice drivers, catalysts and risks .........................................................................6
Economic recovery => plunging provisions, but not in
consensus estimates ...............................................................9
Case study 1: Czech banks...........................................................................................9
Case study 2: OTP .....................................................................................................10
Case study 3: Sberbank..............................................................................................11
Provisioning post 2008-09 crisis................................................................................13
Where the consensus might be off the mark... ...........................................................15
Loan loss reserves normalization for other banks......................................................16
Macro update: unmistakable signs of turnaround ..............18
Destocking cycle to lift output ...................................................................................18
Financial sector shock subsides .................................................................................20
Russian consumer down, but not out .........................................................................23
Another GDP revision adds upside to ’10 growth .....................................................26
Sberbank .................................................................................27
Sberbank: estimates change summary .......................................................................28
VTB ..........................................................................................35
VTB: estimates change summary ..............................................................................36
Bank St. Petersburg ...............................................................43
Bank St. Petersburg: estimates change summary.......................................................44
Bank Vozrozhdenie ................................................................51
Bank Vozrozhdenie: estimates change summary.......................................................52
Bank of Moscow.....................................................................59
Bank of Moscow: estimates change summary ...........................................................60
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................67