Table of Contents
Investment Conclusions ...................................................................... 3
A Quick Look Back at Q2/09 Stock Performance ............................ 4
Current Quarter Earnings Outlook Summary................................. 6
Quarterly Industry Highlights ........................................................... 7
Retail
Drug Stores .................................................................................................... 7
Food Stores .................................................................................................. 11
Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) .............................................................. 14
Convenience Stores...................................................................................... 20
Consumer Products
Dairy ............................................................................................................ 24
Meats, Meals & Bakery................................................................................ 28
Sugar ............................................................................................................ 31
Comparative Valuations versus Earnings Growth......................... 33
Individual Quarterly Previews/Analysis ......................................... 35
Shoppers Drug Mart..................................................................................... 37
Jean Coutu.................................................................................................... 39
Metro............................................................................................................ 41
Loblaw ......................................................................................................... 43
North West ................................................................................................... 45
Tim Hortons ................................................................................................. 47
Couche-Tard................................................................................................. 49
Saputo .......................................................................................................... 51
Maple Leaf ................................................................................................... 53
Rogers Sugar................................................................................................ 57
Justification of Target Prices............................................................ 59
Key Risks to Target Prices................................................................ 60
Appendix I. TD Quantitative Analysis – Consumer Staples
Sector .................................................................................................. 62
Appendix II. TD Economic Insight – State of the
Canadian Consumer ......................................................................... 65
Appendix A. Important Disclosures................................................. 69