Which history?
If recent history were a reliable guide, we could look forward to a quick end to the economic crisis, at
least in the US. Downswings typically last only a handful of quarters and are then followed by
reasonable recoveries. Other countries haven’t always fared quite so well: UK downswings, for example,
persist a lot longer. Nevertheless, given the US experience, it’s no surprise that consensus forecasts
continuously suggest recovery is just around the corner.
We believe, though, that recent history is misleading. Already, the pace of decline in industrial
production in the world’s richest nations is on a par with the early months of the Great Depression and, as
such, is far worse than seen in typical post-war downswings. Given the huge policy stimulus launched
over the last 18 months, this is a disturbing result.
Our forecasts reflect this ongoing weakness. For the global economy in 2009, we are lowering our GDP
forecast from -1.4% to -1.9%. For the developed world, we now expect a 3.0% shrinkage compared with
a fall of 2.5% previously. The emerging world still expands – just – but at a paltry rate of 1.7%.
The crisis can be broken down into three main categories: the original banking crisis, a more recent
collapse in the demand for credit and what we call a geographical seepage. The dynamics associated with
the crisis suggest the need for a healthy dose of scepticism in the light of recent, slightly less
discouraging, signs in the US. Indications of stabilisation in US consumer demand and the housing
market need to be seen in context of haemorrhaging corporate profits, collapsing industrial production
and rapidly rising unemployment elsewhere in the world.
Capacity utilisation rates are at historic lows, inventories are, in many cases, at extraordinary highs
relative to sales given the attempts by companies in recent months to de-stock aggressively and, for
policymakers, the growing fear is deflation. Even if Tim Geithner’s plans to bolster the US financial
system prove successful, the US Treasury Secretary knows there is still a long way to go. Trust in the
financial system will take years to rebuild and, in the meantime, households and companies will be
looking to pay off debts and rebuild their assets.