Can’t do without touch
Macquarie’s touch panel coverage is the broadest in the region and the share
prices have performed strongly YTD. We provide an update on industry
dynamics and upcoming catalysts in the touch panel (TP) space.
Koreans targeting higher touch panel penetration rates
Touch panel has become a mega-trend for handsets. In 1Q09, Samsung
Electronics (SEC, 005930 KS, Won692,000, Outperform, Won840,000) set a
20% target for its touch panel attachment rate, but it recently unveiled a more
aggressive 30–35% target penetration rate for new models by end-2009. Our
checks indicate that LGE’s (066570 KS, Won131,500, OP, Won157,000) TP
adoption rate is likely higher than SEC’s. We expect other laggards to follow suit,
further boosting 2009 demand for touch panel.
Apple’s new touch product likely to take the lead again
Remember how Apple’s first iPhone rocked the world in 2007? We expect to see
Apple leading the pack again; this time exploring more opportunities for touch
panels in notebooks/PCs beyond mobiles. Apple is thought to be developing a
new touch panel product with a screen size of 10” diagonal length and priced
below US$800. Whether it proves to be a netbook, tablet or even an e-book, it
could lead to another sensation as big as Apple’s iPhone launch in mid-2007. A
major beneficiary would be Wintek due to its strong ties with Apple and its
expertise in capacitive touch panel manufacturing.
Windows 7 coming soon
Apple will not be alone as the other NB brands are unlikely to stay out of the
game. Dell, HP, ASUS, Acer, MSI etc. have launched or are developing their
touch netbook/NBs in advance of the Win 7 debut on 22 October 2009. Despite
some doubts about the impact of Win 7 on the touch space, we think it will
enlarge the market for TPs, driven by the major computer brand names. We
estimate that 5% penetration of NB+netbook could drive 10% YoY growth in TP
demand in 2010. We believe Win 7 will drive TP demand beyond 2010,
particularly if TP penetration of NB/netbook exceeds 10%.
Capacitive gaining market share, but not mainstream yet
DisplaySearch forecasts projected capacitive type to lift market share from
12.4% in 2009 to 14.9% in 2010 and 16.8% in 2011. This reflects the trend that
capacitive will gain some ground, but it will not take more than 50% market share
in the near future unless price declines accelerate.
Competition intensifying, but barriers not low
Competition is likely to intensify with announcements expected from many tech
companies regarding the investment in the touch panel business, but we believe
that it will take time for new entrants to catch up with current suppliers in terms of
yield rate, product quality/stability, capacity, and customer relationship. For
example, we even saw YFO and Digitech gaining market share at Samsung in
2Q09 with volume up more than 100% QoQ despite rising competition.
Recommendation
Regionally, we are Outperform on all the TP makers as they should all benefit
from rising touch panel adoption. Nissha and Wintek are our top picks in the
region thanks to Nissha’s market leadership and Wintek for its low valuation and
tight relationship with Apple.