Chinese Auto Industry
Different scenarios suggest same upward growth trend
 Stocks good long-term core holdings: Chinese auto stocks are trading at an
average of 33x 2009 P/E (based on consensus EPS) and 2.6x 2009 P/B—the latter
showing a 36% premium to their global peers. Such lofty valuations stem from the
sector’s long-term potential—Chinese automakers should enjoy significant earnings
growth over the next two decades, boosted by revolutionary top-line growth and costside
restructuring.
 Strong demand growth to continue—no significant downturn likely for 20 years:
According to our scenario-based analysis, the Chinese auto market should continue to
see demand trend upward, from around 10m units this year to an estimated 20m units
by 2030, with little chance of a serious downturn for at least 20 years. We expect the
Chinese government to engineer such stellar growth, as: 1) its measures and
regulations have so far proved to be the country’s major demand drivers; and 2) the
benefits from pro-growth policies generally outweigh the negatives.
 Rationalization of auto-component prices key to China's competitiveness: For
Chinese automakers to enhance their export competitiveness they must improve both
their technological capabilities and cost structures—eg, by expanding economies of
scale to reduce component prices. We anticipate that companies will strive to
streamline cost structures and generate synergies between joint venture partners and
their own brands. Earnings growth beyond 2012 should come from such cost-side
restructuring.
 Major automakers to put themselves on global map by 2020: Chinese players
SAIC and Dongfeng have already begun making serious investments with a view to
catching global players in terms of technology—we expect the two firms to be exportready
for passenger vehicles in 2012, and by 2020 reach an earnings threshold (as
Hyundai Motor did in the early 2000s). This should generate sufficient cash with which
to invest in technology and narrow the gap with their global peers.

Contents
I. Introduction ......................................................................................................................2
II. First views on Chinese auto market..............................................................................3
1. Demand outlook -peak and trend-line forecasts................................................................5
2. Competitive landscape in Chinese auto market ..............................................................15
3. Profitability drivers ...........................................................................................................17
4. Two major players ...........................................................................................................21
5. Share-price performances...............................................................................................26
III. Appendix.......................................................................................................................31