Credit Suisse Research Institute 2017年1月长篇《Thought Leadership from Credit Suisse Research and the World's Foremost Experts》

Introduction

The year 2016 has seen several unanticipated political outcomes and some even less expected market reactions. Specifically, it took four days for financial markets to recover from the Brexit vote, four hours to recover from the results of the US presidential election and approximately 40 minutes to recover from the outcome of the Italian referen-dum. As this update of our 2015 report “The End of Globalization or a more Multipolar World?” ex-plains, such landmark developments may represent a significant departure from globalization as we know it. Although several indicators meanwhile con-firm that gradual economic recovery is underway in major geographies, its pace is likely to remain insuf-ficient to return to pre-2008 levels and foster glob-alization patterns known in the past. In fact, we al-ready observe a continued deceleration in the pace of flow of trade, people, finance and information......