Contents
Real estate coverage universe 3
Our long/short portfolio has returned 29% since February. In this report we
downgrade Unibail-Rodamco and VastNed Retail to Hold. Our neutral to positive
bias for the sector remains.
3
Sector performance – looking up? 10
2009 was off to a volatile start. However, after various balance sheet restructuring
operations and comforting news from the banking sector, the EPRA index has seen
a 44% increase since its low at the beginning of March.
10
Green shoots from overseas 11
We are positive about the likelihood of further improving macro data, but we expect
this to be driven by the US consumer and an Asian recovery. We suspect the
European consumer will remain in the back seat for a while.
11
Food retail: French case study 18
We believe many of the factors that had an impact on the sales and profit
performance of the food retail companies across most Western European countries
in 2008 and so far in 2009 remain and, in some cases, are more pronounced.
18
Impact on our coverage universe 21
Much has been said about a potential recovery of the stock market and if this is a
real recovery or a dead cat bounce. We examine consensus estimates and see that
they appear to have bottomed out at 35% lower levels for NAVs and 16% for cash
flows.
21
Taking a closer look at consensus: are we there yet? 21
Company profiles
Citycon 23
Corio 56
Eurocomm. Properties 85
Klepierre 110
Mercialys 142
Unibail-Rodamco 163
VastNed Retail 192