Contents
Executive summary 3
We believe TVN’s valuation remains expensive in view of the expected slowdown in
the television advertising market in Poland. We recognise CME management’s
response to the slowdown, but remain wary of the profitability outlook and its high
leverage.
The era of easy money is over as digital erodes old moats 3
Audience fragmentation is here 4
The rapid growth of the DTH and cable sectors has already driven relatively high
multichannel penetration across the CEE region.
Multichannel penetration on the rise as DTH and cable take-up accelerates 4
Rise of the thematic sector 7
The rising multichannel penetration in the region has driven rapid growth in the
thematic sector. Distributed over cable and DTH, these channels continue to win
audience share from the incumbents.
Thematic audience share gains look set to continue 7
Rate convergence to fuel market growth 9
Given falling GRP (Gross Rating Point) inventories, we believe the CEE television
advertising market should grow almost exclusively as a result of advertising rate
increases.
GRP inventories continue to shrink 9
CEE CPTs remain attractive 9
Revenue contraction in 2009F 11
We forecast a decline in television advertising spend in 2009 in all CEE
geographies. However, television should take market share at the expense of
outdoor and radio.
Slowdown continues into 2Q 11
Competition drives up programming spend 12
We believe there is too much pessimism about the broadcasters’ ability to defend
margins, even under a negative revenue growth scenario. However, we do argue
that the greater competition will increasingly drive the shift to more expensive local
content.
Operating leverage tougher to extract 12
(Un)comfortable financial leverage 15
With adjusted BV (excluding goodwill) per share of negative US$3.3 and positive
ZL2.0, TVN and CME’s balance sheets remain stretched.
Stretched balance sheets 15
Valuation 16
Our target prices for TVN and CME are based DCF. We believe CME should trade
at a slight premium to TVN, as CME appears further along in the slowdown and
recovery cycle.
Peer valuation 16
DCF analysis 18
Company profiles 20
CME 20
TVN 31
CTC Media 48