Retail, Softlines
2Q09 and Back-to-School
Playbook
Investment conclusion: The biggest take-away from
consumer/retail earnings thus far in 2Q is that in order
for stocks to continue to work, earnings beats have to be
high quality — driven either by top-line or gross margin
outperformance. In 2Q, expense-driven EPS beats are
no longer being rewarded by the market (as they had
been in 1Q). While Softlines retailers have been strong
performers YTD, up 62% vs. the S&P500 +10%, we
think it will pay to be increasingly selective as we move
into 2H09. As our Retail Sales Lead Indicator continues
to point to a muted recovery in sales, we believe the
focus will shift to company-specific levers to drive
top-line and/or gross margin outperformance.
What’s New: Our earnings playbook is a summary of
what we expect out of 2Q09 results when Softlines
retailers report over the next few weeks. In addition, we
include commentary on key back-to-school initiatives for
both department stores and specialty retailers. Most
importantly, we look across other sub-segments of
consumer/retail that have reported already to glean
lessons learned and stock implications for Softlines
retailers as we head into 2H09.
Preferred Names to Own: ARO, COH, JCP, KSS,
URBN. We recommend owning names that have
company-specific levers to drive either sales or gross
margin outperformance vs. Street expectations in 2H09.
Included in this group are the following: ARO (market
share gains), COH (new launches gaining traction, raw
material cost declines), JCP (strength in sourcing, high
private label penetration), KSS (market share gainer,
strength in exclusive brand performance), and URBN
(trend-right fashion, sourcing gains, rent concessions).
Names to Avoid: ANF, AEO, JWN, M, SKS, LTD. On
the flip side, we recommend avoiding names that we
view as most likely to underperform the Street’s top-line
and/or gross margin expectations in 2H09 and 2010. In
this camp, we would place ANF, AEO, JWN, M, SKS
and LTD. Refer to Exhibit 8 for more detail.