Long-Range Forecasting

by William S. Gray
The Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Financial Anlysts
RFICFA | 1999 | ISBN: 0943205476 | 104 pages | PDF | 7 Mb

The original purpose of this monograph was to serve the interests and needs of professional investment practitioners. Anyone trained in econometric modeling will find reasons to criticize some of the methodologgr used in this research. Forecasting the long-term behavior of the security markets is not now, of course, and never will be an exact science. It is also not the intellectual equivalent of nipping a coin, however; it is based on relationships that have proven tractable over time.




This book usefulness should extend, however, to students of economics and finance, anyone with a practical interest in investments, and people who are concerned with legislation, regulation, and/or policy pertaining to the economy, investment management, or the behavior of financial markets.

TOC
Chapter 1. The Models for Long-Term Forecasting
Chapter 2. Behavior of the Model Factors
Chapter 3. The Equivalency Model: Stocks versus Bonds
Chapter 4. IVM Governs Behavior of the U.S. Stock Market, 1929-1996
Chapter 5. Income Yield: The Equilibrator
Chapter 6. Applying IVM the Approach to Long-Term Forecasting
Chapter 7. Using hng-Term Forecasts inn Asset Allocation
Chapter 8. Implications IVM for the Future