Table of contents
Summary and investment conclusions .............................................................................3
E&P Spending Cycle Turned ...........................................................................................5
66 oil companies covered in the survey ........................................................................6
E&P spending revised up for 2008, but estimated to decrease in 2009 ..............................7
2009 E&P spending down due to changed operating environment .................................7
2010 and beyond ..................................................................................................8
2008 spending revised up 3pp............................................................................... 12
Activity growth despite decreased E&P spending.......................................................... 13
Consensus OSX revenue not in line with 2009 E&P growth ............................................ 14
What Determines E&P Spending ................................................................................... 16
Determining factors for E&P spending ........................................................................ 17
The oil price relationship .......................................................................................... 17
Holding back spending as prices are expected to drop .................................................. 20
Short-term demand depressed by current economic crisis ............................................. 21
Long-term demand up and recovery rate down............................................................ 22
Changed relationship between oil and oil service companies .......................................... 22
So is it all a tug of war about costs?........................................................................... 24
Which oil service companies are best positioned to secure margins? ............................... 26
Composition of E&P Spending....................................................................................... 28
North America, FSU and West Africa increasing popularity............................................. 29
Exploration spending takes a hit................................................................................ 30
Still going deeper.................................................................................................... 31
Future fields on stream smaller and closer to existing infrastructure ............................... 33
Increasing reserves and countering the oil depletion rate .............................................. 34
Attractive technology improves recovery rate and identifies reserves .............................. 35
Drilling ..................................................................................................................... 38
Atwood Oceanics .................................................................................................... 45
Diamond Offshore................................................................................................... 48
Ensco.................................................................................................................... 51
Fred Olsen Energy................................................................................................... 54
Noble.................................................................................................................... 57
Northern Offshore ................................................................................................... 60
Pride International .................................................................................................. 63
Rowan................................................................................................................... 66
Scorpion Offshore ................................................................................................... 69
Seadrill ................................................................................................................. 72
Songa Offshore....................................................................................................... 75
Transocean ............................................................................................................ 78
FPSO........................................................................................................................ 81
BW Offshore........................................................................................................... 84
Fred Olsen Production.............................................................................................. 87
Prosafe Production .................................................................................................. 90
Sevan Marine ......................................................................................................... 93
Seismic..................................................................................................................... 97
CGGVeritas .......................................................................................................... 100
EMGS.................................................................................................................. 103
ODIM.................................................................................................................. 106
PGS.................................................................................................................... 109
Reservoir Exploration ............................................................................................ 112
SeaBird Exploration............................................................................................... 115
TGS Nopec........................................................................................................... 118
Offshore Supply ....................................................................................................... 121
Deep Sea Supply .................................................................................................. 124
Eidsvik ................................................................................................................ 127
Ezra Holdings ....................................................................................................... 130
Farstad Shipping................................................................................................... 133
Havila Shipping .................................................................................................... 136
Mosvold Supply .................................................................................................... 139
Siem Offshore ...................................................................................................... 140
Solstad Offshore ................................................................................................... 143
Subsea ................................................................................................................... 146
Acergy ................................................................................................................ 147
Aker Solutions...................................................................................................... 151
Saipem ............................................................................................................... 154
Subsea7.............................................................................................................. 158
Technip ............................................................................................................... 162
Other Oil Service...................................................................................................... 167
EOC Limited......................................................................................................... 167
Seajacks International ........................................................................................... 170
Appendicies ............................................................................................................. 173
Appendix I: Global reserves and production .............................................................. 174
Appendix II: Spending so far in 2009....................................................................... 179
Appendix III: Challenges facing Arctic development ................................................... 180
Appendix IV: Methodology ..................................................................................... 184
Appendix V: The E&P value chain ............................................................................ 189
Appendix VI: Respondents ..................................................................................... 190
Appendix VII: The answers from our survey.............................................................. 205