英文文献：Estimating Vulnerability of U.S. Peanut Producers to Changes in Farm Support-评估美国花生生产者对农业支持变化的脆弱性
英文文献作者：Nadolnyak, Denis A.,Fletcher, Stanley M.
英文文献摘要：
In the paper, we make an attempt to estimate the supply of farmer stock peanuts in the Southeastern Region of the U.S. and evaluate production effects of the recent changes in farm support policies and of trade liberalization that have affected prices. The choice of estimation methodology is dictated by the unavailability of suitable time-series data due to heavily regulated nature of the U.S. peanut markets before 2002. Supply estimation is performed by estimating farm-level supply using cross-sectional survey data on farm-level costs and returns. Results show that producers not able to expand peanut acreage are likely to be vulnerable to price reductions, as there might exist economies of scale. Production on dry land is likely to remain unprofitable at the current price levels. The analysis is complicated by severe multicollinearity problems and noisiness of the input data explained by the fact that many input variables may be inverse proxies for land productivity, which varied because of the constraints imposed by the supply management policies.

在本文中，我们试图估算美国东南部地区农民库存花生的供应量，并评估近期农业支持政策和贸易自由化的变化对价格的影响。由于2002年之前美国花生市场受到严格管制，无法获得合适的时间序列数据，因此决定了估算方法的选择。供应估计是通过使用关于农场层面成本和回报的横断面调查数据来估计农场层面的供应来进行的。结果表明，由于存在规模经济，无法扩大花生种植面积的生产者很可能会受到价格下降的影响。在目前的价格水平下，旱地生产可能仍然无利可图。严重的多重共线性问题和输入数据的噪声使得分析变得复杂，因为许多输入变量可能是土地生产力的反向代理，而土地生产力由于供应管理政策的约束而变化。