贝莱德2017年3月全球宏观展望：

Our BlackRock GPS, a proprietary indicator that provides a handle on the near-term growth outlook, suggests global reflation is gaining greater breadth and depth. Europe and Japan are now making important contributions on top of the steady US expansion. We dig into Europe’s recovery and find the reflationary dynamic in its early stages. Inflation expectations have turned up, even if wage growth and underlying inflation are subdued. Highlights in our Global macro outlook include:

• We believe the eurozone’s improving economy can gain more momentum in a reflationary world, absent a negative political or external shock. Germany and France are both playing a bigger role driving growth.

• We find that markets appear too pessimistic on Europe’s prospects. A big reason we are positive on risk assets in Europe is because the market is not reflecting this better economic performance and outlook, we believe.

• Inflation expectations have finally perked up. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional policies appear to have done the trick on expectations and probably need to be in place for longer. That should help foster further gains in employment and, eventually, wages. We see the ECB staying patient.