World economy
U V or W for recovery
是U?V?还是W?经济复苏的UVW曲线
Aug 20th 2009
From The Economist print editio
The world economy has stopped shrinking. That’s the end of the good news
世界经济已暂停萎缩,但是高兴或为时尚早
IT HAS been deep and nasty. But the worst global recession since the 1930s may be over. Led by China, Asia’s emerging economies have revived fastest, with several expanding at annualised rates of more than 10% in the second quarter. A few big rich economies also returned to growth, albeit far more modestly, between April and June. Japan’s output rose at an annualised pace of 3.7%, and both Germany and France notched up annualised growth rates of just over 1%. In America the housing market has shown signs of stabilising, the pace of job losses is slowing and the vast majority of forecasters expect output to expand between July and September. Most economies are still a lot smaller than they were a year ago. On a quarterly basis, though, they are turning the corner.
这个问题已成历史的的积垢,很严重又令人头疼.但是从上世纪30年代以来最严重的全球性经济萧条已经结束了.以中国为首,亚洲的新兴经济复苏最快,有几个国家在二季度年增长率超过10%.从4月份到七月份期间,几个富裕的经济大国也已回温,尽管幅度尚小.日本的工业产量年增长率达到了3.7%,德国和法国刚好达到1%多一点.美国的房市趋于稳定,失业现象渐缓,大部分的分析家预言7月份到9月份期间的工业生产将有所扩大.大多数国家的经济稍微同比下降.但是比上一季度略微有所回升.
This is good news. The first step in any recovery is for output to stop shrinking. But the more interesting question is what shape the recovery will take. The debate centres around three scenarios: “V”, “U” and “W”. A V-shaped recovery would be vigorous, as pent-up demand is unleashed. A U-shaped one would be feebler and flatter. And in a W-shape, growth would return for a few quarters, only to peter out once more.
这是好消息.任何一次经济复苏的第一步都是工业生产的萎缩.但是更有趣的是经济复苏将以什么样的形态出现.人们争论的焦点集中于三种趋势:"V","U","W".V型阶段的复苏是强劲有力的,因为市场被抑制的需求得到了释放.U型阶段的复苏相比之下要微弱和平和一些.在W型阶段,经济增长会连续几个季度反弹,结果又会再一次回落.
Optimists argue that the scale of the downturn augurs for a strong rebound. America’s deepest post-war recessions, they point out, were followed by vigorous recoveries. In the two years after the slump of 1981-82, for instance, output soared at an average annual rate of almost 6%; and this time round, output has slumped even further, and for longer, than it did in the early 1980s.
乐观人士认为,经济下滑预示着更强的经济反弹.他们认为,美国战后出现了严重的经济衰退,随后又出现了强有力的复苏.例如,在1981至1982两年间的经济下滑之后,工业产量急剧增长,每年的增长率几乎达到了6%;而这一回,经济下滑要比二十世纪八十年代初期更严重,持续时间更长.
Pessimists, meanwhile, think this downturn’s origins favour a weak recovery or a double-dip. Unlike typical post-war recessions this slump was spawned by a financial bust, not high interest rates, and when overindebted borrowers need to rebuild their balance-sheets and financial systems need repair, growth can be weak and easily derailed for years. Japan’s 1990s banking crisis left the economy stagnant for a decade; a premature tax increase in 1997 plunged it back into recession.
与此同时,悲观人士认为,这一次的经济下滑造成了经济恢复微弱或者说令其陷入了双谷衰退.不象战后的经济衰退,这次的下滑是由经济破产而不是高利率造成的,当负债累累的借款者需要重新恢复资产负债表和金融系统需要恢复的时候,经济增长就会变得缓慢,很容易造成连续多年的经济脱轨.日本二十世纪九十年代的银行系统危机让经济停滞了10年;1997年税收的猛然提升令其骤然跌入衰退期.
V for vulnerable
这次的V型代表的是"脆弱"
Neither of these parallels is exact, because today’s global slump combines several types of downturn and an unprecedented policy response. In formerly bubble economies, it is largely a balance-sheet recession. Debt-fuelled consumption has been felled. But the scale of collapse was broadened and deepened by the freezing up of the machinery of global finance, a dramatic collapse in confidence and stock-slashing. It was then countered with the biggest stimulus in history. The shape of the recovery depends on how these forces interact.
上面两种说法都有偏颇,因为今天的全球经济下滑包含着几种类型的下滑,应对的政策也是前所未有的.在先前的泡沫经济时期,经济衰退很大程度上是资产负债表衰退.目前负债消费已经减少了.但是全球金融市场停滞不前,股票戏剧性下跌,人们的信心崩溃,造成了经济崩溃的规模扩大,程度加深,接着就需要强有力的经济复苏了.经济以什么样的形式复苏要看当时各种各样的力量是怎样相互作用的.
In the short term that shape could look beguilingly like a “V”, as stimulus kicks in and the inventory cycle turns. In emerging Asia, the unfreezing of trade finance, a turnaround in stocks and hefty fiscal stimulus are powering a rebound. Government support, especially employment subsidies and incentives toa buy new cars, has cushioned demand in Germany and France (see article). With export orders rising and confidence growing, the next few months could be surprisingly buoyant. Even in America, the fiscal stimulus is kicking in, the “cash for clunkers” scheme is a big, if temporary, prop to output and firms will, sooner or later, stop cutting inventories.
当经济刺激启动,存货周期转换时,短期内经济形式呈现出令人心花怒放的"V"型.在亚洲新兴经济体内,贸易融资的坚冰正在解冻,股市回温,财政刺激猛烈,这一切都呈现出强大的反弹局势.政府支持,特别是就业补贴和刺激购买新车,已经缓解了德国和法国的市场需求.随着出口定货和信心的增加,接下来的几个月全球经济可能会突然出现一派欣欣向荣的景象.甚至在美国,财政刺激也正在启动,"现金换旧车"计划宏伟,尽管是短期的,但是已经帮助刺激了汽车销售.商家迟早会停止削减存货的.
Yet a rebound based on stock adjustments is necessarily temporary, and one based on government stimulus alone will not last. Beyond those two factors there is little reason for cheer. America’s housing market may yet lurch down again as foreclosures rise, high unemployment takes its toll and a temporary home-buyers’ tax-credit ends (see article). Even if housing stabilises, consumer spending will stay weak as households pay down debt. In America and other post-bubble economies, a real V-shaped bounce seems fanciful. Elsewhere, it will happen only if vigorous private domestic demand picks up the baton from government stimulus. In Japan and Germany, where joblessness has further to rise, that seems unlikely any time soon. The odds are better in emerging economies, especially China. But even there an array of reforms, from a stronger currency to an overhaul of subsidies, is needed to boost labour income and encourage consumption. Until that shift takes place, the global recovery will be fragile and probably quite feeble. A gloomy U with a long, flat bottom of weak growth is the likeliest shape of the next few years.
然而,建立在股市调整基础上的反弹必定是短暂的,仅靠政府刺激也不能长久.除了这两个因素之外,几乎没什么理由可庆幸的了.由于很多人被取消了住房抵押品赎回权,美国的房市有可能会突然下跌,高失业率后果严重,针对购房者的税收抵免政策只是昙花一现,即使房市稳定,但是由于购房者要付分期付款的头款,消费者的购买力也减弱了.在美国和其它后泡沫经济的国家,真正的V型反弹似乎还在镜花水月之中.在别的地方,只有当国内私人机构的需求大刀阔斧地接过政府刺激的指挥大棒,V型复苏才有可能发生.在日本和德国,失业率继续上升,似乎遥遥无期.亚洲新兴经济体,特别是中国,情况要好一些.但是即使在那里,为了提高员工收入,鼓励消费,从坚挺货币,到改革津贴,他们都要进行一系列改革.在V型复苏出现之前,亚洲的经济复苏将是脆弱的,而且很可能是非常无力的,未来几年内,缓慢的经济增长很可能在很长时期里呈现令人沮丧的U型谷底.
扫码加好友，拉您进群
全部版块
我的主页
，也弄的到更多
W，道路是曲折的，前途是光明的……
