CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS ...............................................................................................................................vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................................. ix

DISCLAIMER .........................................................................................................................................................................x

FOREWORD BY THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL ..........................................................................................................xi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. xiii

I  THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09 ............................................................................................................... 1

A  INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 1

B  OVERVIEW OF TRADE AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTS IN 2008-09 ...................................... 3

C  MERCHANDISE TRADE, VOLUME (REAL) TERMS, 2008 ......................................................................... 5

D  MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES TRADE, VALUE (NOMINAL) TERMS, 2008 ................................... 7

II  TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES ............................................. 19

A  INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 19

B  FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 21

1.  Economic theories of trade agreements and the role of f lexibilities .......................................................... 21

2.  Circumstances for suspension of commitments and f lexibility measures  

built into the WTO agreements .....................................................................................................................30

3.  Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................39

C  ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES ........................................................................................... 47

1.  Safeguards .......................................................................................................................................................... 47

2.  Dumping and anti-dumping measures .......................................................................................................... 65

3.  Subsidies and countervailing duties ...............................................................................................................84

4.  Other selected measures of contingency protection ..................................................................................102

5.  Choosing among different measures ............................................................................................................ 114

6.  Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 117

D  EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ......................................................................................................................................127

1.  Patterns and trends in the use of contingency measures ...........................................................................127

2.  Contingency measures and the multilateral trading system ....................................................................142

3.  Factors explaining the use of trade contingency measures .......................................................................147

4.  The economic impact of contingency measures .........................................................................................152

5.  Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................156

E  CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................159

BIBLIOGRAPHY ..............................................................................................................................................................161

TECHNICAL NOTES .....................................................................................................................................................169
lIST OF TaBlES, CHarTS aNd BOXES

I   THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09

Tables

Table 1  GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2006-08 ........................................................................................... 6

Table 2  World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2008 .................................................................... 8

Table 3  World exports of commercial services by major category, 2008 ................................................................... 9

Charts

Chart 1  Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2007-08 .......................................................................... 1

Chart 2  Prices of selected primary products, January 2002-January 2009 ............................................................... 4

Chart 3  Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1998-2008 ................................................. 5

Chart 4  Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2008 ............................................................................................. 6

Chart 5  Export prices of selected primary products, 2006-08 .................................................................................... 7

Chart 6  Dollar exchange rates of selected major currencies, January 2000-January 2009 ..................................... 8

Appendix

App. Table 1  World merchandise trade by region and selected country, 2008 ....................................................... 13

App. Table 2  World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2008 .................................. 14

App. Table 3  Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008 ............................................................... 15

App. Table 4  Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008 (Excluding intra-EU (27) trade) ...... 16

App. Table 5  Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2008 .............................. 17

App. Chart 1  Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006-February 2009 ..... 11

II   TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES

B.  FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS

Tables

Table 1  A categorization of circumstances and arguments for a temporary increase in protection ..................... 31

Boxes

Box 1  Terms-of-trade and the international cost-shifting problem .......................................................................22

Box 2  Time-inconsistency ............................................................................................................................................23

Box 3  Commitment versus f lexibility: the case of safeguards in the GATT and WTO .................................... 25

C.  ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES

Tables

略。。。。