RBS 的Bob Janjuah再度预测8月底或9月全球股市再度暴跌
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finan ... -stock-markets.html
RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets
Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 8:26PM BST 12 Aug 2009
A bear market is being forecast for after the summer Photo: REUTERS
Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.
"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients.
"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.
He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.
Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.
This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.
Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September.
While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale.
"The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?"
The elephant in the room is the spiralling public debt as private losses are shifted on to the taxpayer, especially in Britain and America. "Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone?"
Mr Janjuah said governments might put off the day of reckoning into the middle of next year if they resort to another shot of stimulus, but that would store yet further problems. "If what I fear plays out then I will have to concede that the lunatics who ran the asylum pretty much into the ground last year are back in control."
Over at Morgan Stanley, equity guru Teun Draaisma thinks we are through the worst. "We were on course for a Great Depression in February, but Armageddon was avoided. Governments did not repeat the policy errors of the 1930s."
"We have seen the lows of this crisis. This is a genuine rebound rally, and it has been short by historical standards so far," he said.
Mr Draaisma, who called the top of the bull market almost to the day in mid-2007, has crunched the worldwide data on 19 major stock market crashes over the last century. They show that the typical rebound rally (as opposed to bear trap rallies, when markets later plunge to new lows) lasts 17 months and stocks rise 71pc. The 1993 rally in the US was 170pc over 13 months. Finland's rally in 1994 was 295pc. Hong Kong rallied 159pc in 2000. This rebound is only five months old. The key indexes have risen 49pc in the US and 42pc in Europe. Mr Draaisma advises clients to stay in the stocks for now, but stick to telecom companies, utilities, and oil.
Yet he too expects a nasty correction once this rally falters. The usual trigger at this stage of the cycle is when central bankers start to make hawkish noises, typically a couple of months before the first turn of the screw (normally a rate rise, but in this case an end to "quantitative easing". "As long as policy-makers are talking about how fragile the recovery is, equities are unlikely to go down much."
This moment can be hard to judge. There has already been rumbling from some governors at the US Federal Reserve and from the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Trichet. Markets are pricing in rates rises by early next year.
The pattern after major financial bust-ups is that the rebound rally gives way to another fall of 25pc or so, lasting a year, followed by five years of hard slog as stocks bounce up and down in a trading range, going nowhere. Mr Draaisma suggests taking a close look at the chart of Japan's Nikkei index from 1991 to 1999. Gains were zero.
We are in uncharted waters, however. Monetary and fiscal stimulus has been unprecedented. Russell Napier at Hong Kong brokers CLSA says a powerful bull market is already taking shape as the American giant reawakens. Perma-bears will be left behind. He said: "It is dangerous to be in cash."
When the finest minds in the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only shake our heads in confusion.
翻译的不是很准确，还请大家指正。三个月的下滑可能创出历史低点，苏格兰皇家银行首席信贷战略分析师Bob Janjuah发出预警。8月12日 路透社的夏季照片预示了熊市。不列颠的超级熊市再次成长。在夏季的早些时候预言了热烈的“复苏反弹”后，苏格兰皇家银行的 Bob Janjuah 建议他的客户从全球证券和商品市场中获益并随着冬季来领准备另一场风暴。 “我们正处于一个抛物线中间的尖顶，”他在给他的客户的机密通知中说道。 “我预计这场冒险的反弹会持续到-可能是经历八月的大部分时间。之后会发生什么呢？当我们进入七月穿过九月的‘倾斜区间’， 当支撑市场的所谓V型反弹的经济数据失败后，下一个熊市的坏脚（直译）就要开始了。” 观察的关键指标是商业设施支出 (Capex)，收入，就业和利润。只有这些指标大幅度提高才能证明当前的资产价值。仅仅是所谓‘ 不那么坏了’的结果不足够（证明复苏）。 他预计全球股票市场将会试探它们在三月的低点，且有可能更糟。下滑有可能持续三个月。“很可能会创出新低，”他说。 Janjuah先生，苏皇银的首席信用战略分析师，在城市里有个忠诚的追随者。他是极少数提前报告危险的信贷泡沫过度膨胀的分析 师之一。他因在08年夏季发出全球危机警报造成轰动，他当时警告说“我们即将面临一场非常危险的时期”，事实的确如此。雷曼 兄弟和AIG几周后发生内爆。 这次他预言标普500指数将跌至“550点左右”，相当与从现在接近1000点的水平跌去一半。如此水平将拿掉伦敦 FTSE 100到大约 2500. iTraxx交叉指数测量延伸自低水平的欧洲债务将加倍至1250. Janjuah先生建议投资者为求安全在八月晚期或九月早些时候买入十年期德国国债。 当媒体的头条开始炒作公司盈利的短期反弹时，Janjuah说这是一个统计错觉。公司利润在第二季度相比去年实际上下降了20% 。其利润不肯能有大幅提升，因为西方要慢慢消化债务和过剩产能。投资者被重新吸引回游戏中，在这里“市场制造舆论”，“过 剩的流动性”是驱动投资的主要原因。 “在过去的两个八月被证明是关键的转折点。07年八月是谚语‘头号骗子’，当时所有人都认为政策制定者不会干预正在发生的信用 灾难，08年八月是九、十、十一月崩溃前平静，第三个八月，所有人都幸运吗？” 螺旋上升的公共债务就像房间里的大象（快撑破屋顶了），私人债务被转移到纳税人的头上，尤其是英国和美国。“请问你们自 己，当政府担保了每个人后，将由谁来担保政府？”（中国政府？） Janjuah说，政府可以通过再推刺激计划来把清算日推迟到明年年中，但是会产生更多的问题。“如果哦担心的事情发生了，那我 就必须承认去年那些逃出精神病院的疯子得到了相当的控制。” 摩根士丹利的证券专家Teun Draaisman认为我们已经过了最危险的时候了。“我们在二月的时候处在一个巨大衰退的时期，但是避 免了世界末日。政府不再重复1930年代的政策错误了。” “我们已看到了危机的低谷。这是一个真正的复苏反弹，而且它到目前为止比历史标准来的短暂。” Draaisma先生，他仔细研究了上个世纪19个股票市场崩盘的数据，曾说过07年中是牛市的顶部。 这些数据显示典型的复苏反弹（ 相反于熊市反弹，熊市反弹会在后面再次探底）持续17个月，股票上涨71%。1993年美国（股票）的复苏持续了13个月上涨 170%。1994年芬兰的复苏上涨295%。香港2000年复苏159%。而这次反弹只有5个月。美国的关键指标上涨49%，欧洲涨42%。 Draaisma先生建议客户暂时留在股市，但持有电信公司，公共用品和石油（的股票）。 现在他也预期这轮反弹会有一波严重的调整。该阶段的触发点是中央银行开始发出强硬声音，典型的是转折前的两个月（一般是 提高利率，但现阶段应该是结束“数量宽松”政策）。“只要政策制定者正讨论复苏时如何脆弱的时候，证券市场就不会有太大下 滑。” 这个时机很难判断。现在从一些政府中发出了声音，从美联储，从欧洲中央银行的 Jean-Claude Trichet.市场预计明年早时会提高 利率。 金融危机结束后的格局将是复苏反弹后会有另一波25%的下跌，持续一年，接着是贸易领域5年的困难伴随股市的上下跳动，而 无计可施。Draaisma 建议仔细观察日经指数91年到99年的走势，收益率为零。 不过，我们正进入未知的水域。货币和财政政策市是空前的。香港CLSA经纪人Russell Napier说伴随美国巨人的复苏，一个强大的 牛市已经开始形成。长期熊市会过去。他说：“拥有现金时危险的。” 当商界最顶尖的头脑们的分歧都如此剧烈，剩下的我们只能在混乱中摇头了。
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