Table of Contents
Castles Made of Sand ..............................................................8
Preface ....................................................................................11
J.P. Morgan Conference Call Series VI.................................12
Investment Ideas & PT and Rating Changes........................13
Investment Ideas ..................................................................14
Rating and target price changes.........................................24
Castles Made of Sand ............................................................27
Stocks have returned 82% from March low .......................28
And rally was justified (to some extent).............................32
Property prices are turning the corner...............................35
Potential boost in property prices looming .......................41
Current rally likely to end rather unhappily .......................43
1. The sector looks 14% too expensive..............................43
2. Cannot make the math work............................................49
3. Current rally most powerful in 34 years .........................51
4. Wobbly road ahead ..........................................................57
5. The market remains distressed.......................................61
Company Statistics ................................................................63
Direct Market Analysis ...........................................................67
Office rents: London troughing first...................................68
London — West End: almost there.....................................73
London — City: recovery could be sharp ..........................74
Paris (IDF) — rents trough this year ...................................75
Amsterdam — remains sluggish.........................................76
Madrid — weakest after London .........................................77
Frankfurt — high vacancy ...................................................78
Shopping centre — Rents continue decline ......................82
J.P. Morgan Shopping Centre Model..................................89
Industrial property market review.....................................108
UK — All property — yields and yield spreads................116
UK — Office — yields and yield spreads..........................117
UK — Retail — yields and yield spreads..........................118
UK — Industrial — yields and yield spreads....................119
UK Commercial Property Lending Market........................120
Contributions........................................................................129
Equity Strategy — Property sector view ..........................130
UK economic view: Recovery despite consumer restraint
.............................................................................................132
UK housing market: the stabilization after the plunge....134
Euro area: big cyclical uplift, strong secular headwinds140
Quant Analysis: What drives the Property Sector? ........144
Accounting issues .............................................................146
UK Banks — deleveraging yet to happen.........................147
Bricks & Mortar Derivatives market..................................149
European CMBS Outlook: There may be trouble ahead …
.............................................................................................153
Credit — Property Bonds...................................................158
Small/Mid Cap Strategy......................................................161
Australian REITs — FY10 outlook.....................................165
US REITs .............................................................................171
Asia Real Estate Special....................................................173
Investment summary: following after bubbles in the air 174
Russia special: Back to investor radar screens..............179
Russian housing market....................................................180
Commercial property market in Moscow .........................185
MENA Special: Aldar Properties .......................................187
Abu Dhabi: Residential Market faces short supply .........190
Commercial sector — still facing shortage......................195
Dubai: Residential market to see rising supply...............200
Commercial sector — supply rising .................................208