Landlords More Attractive Than Developers 3
Residential prices going back fast to 2008 peak... 3
…but share prices have factored it in 3
Property investors appear more attractive on valuations 5
Strategy for 4Q09 7
Near-term Headwinds for Residential Plays 9
Tighter domestic liquidity in mainland China 9
Low rental yields mean less attractive investments and less hedge
against potential rises in interest rates 12
Higher resistance among prospective buyers as property prices approach
2008 peak 15
A closer look at fundamentals 17
Illusion: higher residential prices do not necessarily equal higher
revenue and profitability 17
It’s all about overflowing liquidity so far 18
Significant negative correlation between unemployment and
property prices 21
Gap between housing prices and household income indices 24
Estimated 31,500 of new supply from now till end-2010 25
There is no structural shortage at all 28
Population growth likely to remain slow 29
Unexciting wage outlook 31
Indoor efficiency gaps affect end-user demand 32
Analysis of Residential Supply 35
Secondary market transacted prices 43
Hong Kong Island 43
Kowloon 44
New Territories 45
Discount to NAV (Individual stocks) 46
Price-to-Book (Individual stocks) 48
Appendix A-1 53
Analyst Certification 53