September 14, 2009
Transportation
Haneda Extension About
One Year Away, Propelling
Annual International Service
Demand Growth to +55-86%
Focus 1-2: Flight slot increase in 2010…: Narita's
flight slot capacity will grow 10% (274 to 301/day) with
the Mar 2010 extension of runway B. Haneda's daytime
capacity will also climb 34% (415 to 557/day) by Oct '10
with new runway D, and we also expect an extra 40 slots
at night to be allotted to int'l flights.
…Int'l flight capacity to jump: Capacity by Apr 2011
will grow to 440/day on domestic (+9.2% vs. present)
and to 80/day on int'l routes (up 6.7x) out of Haneda, and
to 301/day on int'l routes (+10%) at Narita.
Focus 3: How will more flight slots affect demand?
Int'l routes to spur growth; domestic growth to
weaken: We look for passenger demand on domestic/
int'l routes -8.5% in F3/10, +3.0% in F3/11, +2.7% F3/12
as global economies revive and flight slots rise. We see
demand growth from F3/11 led by int'l routes at Haneda
(F3/10-12e +55%/yr) and Narita (+6.5%). This assumes
50% seat occupancy in new slots cautiously. 70% would
put int’l demand +85.9% for Haneda, +8.4% Narita.
Focus 4: Airline earnings impact? Expect V-shaped
F3/11 rebound led by revenue gains, but too soon to
turn bullish: The next big question is whether new midterm
plans mark the end of bad news. Among specific
issues are whether (1) risk of consolidated BPS erosion
subsides, and (2) probability of F3/11 net profitability
increases with further cost-cut effects.
Focus 5: Does Haneda's int'l flight capacity growth
hurt shinkansen? Impact limited; passenger share
gains still on track: Haneda domestic flight slots will
rise only 9.2%, not a threat to competitiveness of
shinkansen with its travel frequency. We see high oil
prices lifting airfares from F3/11, aiding shinkansen.
Focus 6: Who benefits from Haneda expansion,
Narita extension? Given the expected passenger
demand boost, likely beneficiaries are airlines, airportrelated
firms, railways targeting airport access, and
leisure-industry operators (hotels, tour agencies, etc).