Table of Contents
Playing telcos through to end-2009 ................................................. 4
Over-weight telcos to end-2009................................................................................................4
Lessons from the past: preparing for the telco rally .................................................................5
Recent top line weakness: more cyclical than structural ..........................................................6
Sector KPIs/trends summary ....................................................................................................8
Cash flows growing, dividend sustainable, but limited incremental returns .............................9
Sector valuation and top picks ................................................................................................10
Strategy: lessons from recent & past performance...................... 13
Sector seasonality increasingly extreme.................................................................................13
Seasonal trend independent of market direction ....................................................................14
Which names tend to do well and when?...............................................................................15
Important stock themes: dividends, local markets & EM .......................................................16
Recent top line weakness: more cyclical than structural ............ 20
Historic linkage between sector rating and growth ................................................................20
The economy weighed heavily on telcos in 2008 and ‘09 ......................................................22
Multiple moving parts & very different country trends ...........................................................23
The real impact of the real economy.......................................................................................24
Spain an outlier on GDP relationship but not employment .....................................................25
Employment late cycle and near term outlook mixed .............................................................27
Who’s best placed for recovery? ............................................................................................30
Sector trends ................................................................................... 33
Summary................................................................................................................................33
Organic revenue trends for the sector ....................................................................................33
Trends in European Mobile Revenues and KPIs .....................................................................34
Mobile service revenue trends across the big 5 markets .......................................................36
Trends in European Fixed Voice/Internet Revenues and KPIs.................................................37
Fixed Broadband market data .................................................................................................40
Cash flow resilience/returns........................................................... 41
Cash flows growing, dividend sustainable, but limited incremental returns ...........................41
Cash flows should remain resilient .........................................................................................41
Few catalysts from cash returns.............................................................................................45
Key events........................................................................................ 48
Company pages ............................................................................... 49