Table of Contents
Section 1- Media Stocks to Own in an Economic
Recovery ...................................................................................3
Stock Picks for an Economic Recovery .......................................................................3
Criteria #1: Earnings Leverage to the Cycle ................................................................3
Criteria #2: Exposure to Structural revenue shift in the recovery................................5
Criteria #3: Operating Leverage ..................................................................................6
Criteria #4: Quality of Balance Sheet and Financial Leverage ....................................7
Criteria #5: Valuation Support.....................................................................................7
Section 2- Key Themes from the Media Reporting
Season.......................................................................................9
Theme #1: Revenue - The Bottom is Behind...............................................................9
Theme #2: Taking Cost Out.........................................................................................9
Theme #3: Balance Sheet Repair Well Underway.....................................................12
Theme #4: Categories: Pay-TV & Radio Win, Print & Outdoor Lose ......................13
Theme #5: The Surprises ...........................................................................................15
Section 3- Outlook for the Australian Ad Market .................16
AdSpend: J.P. Morgan Revised Forecasts .................................................................16
Companies
APN News & Media ..................................................................................................20
Austar United Communications Ltd ..........................................................................22
Austereo Group..........................................................................................................24
Consolidated Media Holdings....................................................................................26
Fairfax Media Limited ...............................................................................................28
Macquarie Media Group Ltd......................................................................................30
Prime Media Group Limited ......................................................................................32
SEEK Limited............................................................................................................34
Seven Network...........................................................................................................36
Sky Network Television Limited...............................................................................38
West Australian Newspapers .....................................................................................40
Appendices
Appendix I: Advertising Forecasts .......................................42
Appendix II: Radio ratings .....................................................43
Appendix III: Free to Air TV ratings.......................................46
Appendix IV: Employment survey.........................................47