Table of contents
3 Executive summary
3 Why invest in renewable power infrastructure and why now?
3 What are the risks to investing in renewable power infrastructure?
3 Which names do we prefer?
4 What makes this report different?
5 Investment drivers for renewable power
5 Electricity and economic growth
5 Electricity and the environment
6 Electricity, the electorate and the elected
6 ‘The great carbon debate’: Carbon tax vs cap-and-trade
7 The US is holding ‘pocket ACES’
7 Canada pressing ahead with its own emissions offset system
8 Other regulatory initiatives
9 Best markets for renewable power development
10 Mergers and acquisitions in the renewable power sector
11 US power markets
11 Overview
11 New England: Growing support for renewable capacity
13 New York: A tightening in-city market
15 Canadian power markets
15 Overview
15 Québec’s strategy: Hydro first, with wind on the side
17 Ontario’s plan: Start a green energy revolution
19 Alberta’s focus: Even though renewable is doable, carbon capture remains a priority
20 British Columbia’s goal: Go with the flow
23 Boralex Inc. (BLX): The most versatile Canadian renewable energy play: Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and
C$12.75 target
24 Company overview
26 Growth initiatives
28 Investment highlights and key positives
30 Key negatives and risk factors
31 Boralex Power Income Fund
32 Financial forecast
33 Valuation
34 Investment thesis and outlook
36 Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (INE): A high-growth hydro/wind pure play: Initiating coverage with a Buy rating
and C$7.25 target
37 Company overview
37 Growth initiatives
39 Investment highlights and key positives
41 Key negatives and risk factors
42 Innergex Power Income Fund
42 Financial forecast
43 Valuation
44 Investment thesis and outlook
46 Appendix 1: Power market basics
48 Appendix 2: Hydro-Québec’s wind procurement plan
49 Appendix 3: Ontario’s Green Energy Act and Feed-in Tariff
50 Appendix 4: Regional cap-and-trade initiatives
51 Appendix 5: The New England power market
52 Appendix 6: Trading comparables