瑞信最近的中国观点，认为中国经济正逐渐下行，要点是1) PBoC 已收紧银行间流动性，并严控企业债，导致利率上行和交易转向委托贷款市场。2) 工业生产和进出口都已见顶，基础设施投资仍然强劲。在下半年，进出口和地产投资将受到影响。3) 瑞士信贷下调以美元计GDP增长预期至5%，前值8.2%。英文20页：

Credit growth remains strong despite interbank liquidity tightening.

Property and industrial investment likely to be most affected.

Increase in borrowing costs.

Exports, property and industrial investment drivers of growth year-to-date(YTD).


Mild slowdown in consumption, infrastructure investment remains strong.

Key industrial products indicate peaking industrial activities.

Expect nominal demand growth slowdown from 10.2% YTD to 8.7% in remaining months.