EM Asia 2H17 outlook: Back to
the mean
 1H17 growth in EM Asia surprised to the upside, driven by tech
and commodity-related sectors
 Softer China and G-3 capex, should see growth normalize in 2H17
 Tech launches and semiconductor demand should benefit North
Asian economies more than others
 Stabilized capital outflows in China, reduced volatility opens policy
space for PBOC to refocus on domestic issues
 Despite recent cyclical lift, core inflation has been on a downtrend,
suggesting limited domestic pricing power
 Global financial conditions should remain supportive of EM Asia –
balance of payments revised up, premised on relatively well telegraphed
G3 central bank reaction functions
 Watching China’s financial plumbing and G3 capex