Table of Contents
Life worth living................................................................................. 3
Recent sector performance ......................................................................................................3
Investment strategy ..................................................................................................................5
Recommendations...................................................................................................................6
High quality life biased plays.....................................................................................................7
Cheaper life biased plays with restructuring angles..................................................................7
Non-life “biased” plays.............................................................................................................9
Numbers changes............................................................................ 11
Price targets...........................................................................................................................11
Earnings forecasts ..................................................................................................................11
Dividends ...............................................................................................................................11
Life insurance outlook..................................................................... 13
Overview................................................................................................................................13
Changes in the macro economy .............................................................................................13
Changes in the business model ..............................................................................................13
Changes in disclosure .............................................................................................................14
Non-life insurance outlook ............................................................. 16
Primary non-life .......................................................................................................................16
Reinsurance ............................................................................................................................17
The role of reinvestment rates ................................................................................................18
Capital & Dividends......................................................................... 20
Capital ....................................................................................................................................20
Dividends ...............................................................................................................................21
Solvency & Accounting developments.......................................... 23
Solvency II..............................................................................................................................23
IAS 39 / Accounting issues .....................................................................................................24
Appendix – Updated valuation and risk statements .................... 30