Deutsche Bank 7月20日长篇,53页。
Incremental improvements in asset quality and NIM;Buy quality names.We turned more positive on big Chinese banks after our recent trip to China,aswe saw evidence of incremental improvements in asset quality and margin.The strict implementation of supply-side reforms is driving up the profitabilityof industrial SOEs,which were perceived as the most troubled areas.Propertyrisks have moderated as consolidation momentum has picked up.This shouldrelieve asset quality concerns for these two sectors(c.35% of total credit)andalso be supportive for banks’asset yields.As a result,we cut the NPLformation rate by 7bps/8bps to 0.6% in 2017/18 for big banks,and lift NIMassumptions by 4bps/9bps.We upgrade ABC-H and BoCom-H to Buy.