A methodological approach to strategic petroleum reserves JE Samouilidis and SA Berahas
National Technical University of Athens, Greece


Available online 22 May 2003.


AbstractEnergy constitutes a small fraction of the production inputs in the economy, yet the rigidity imposed by the short and medium term inability to substitute energy with other production factors in case of an energy shortage, requires the establishment of safeguard mechanisms to ensure sufficient energy supply during an emergency. These safeguards usually take the form of strategic energy reserves. A methodological approach is presented here, relating the level of strategic petroleum reserves, the decision variable, with the costs associated with their storage and the economic losses incurred by an energy shortage. This approach is based on the use of a decision tree, to portray emergency scenarios. Each scenario, a branch of the decision tree, can be evaluated in terms of a cost function which includes the inventory procurement and maintenance cost and the shortage cost inflicted by a petroleum shortfall.

On the optimal level of a small country's strategic petroleum reserve J. E. Samouilidis
Vangelis F. Magirou
Energy Policy Unit, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
National Energy Council of Greece, Greece


Available online 22 May 2003.


AbstractDecisions relating to a country's strategic petroleum reserve must take into account the level of risk inherent in its petroleum imports, the cost resulting from any shortfall in the import level, the cost of storage, and finally the effects of stockpiling transactions on the sensitive spot oil markets. Of course, small countries need not take into account their effect on the global market, a fact that drastically simplifies their decision problem. We present such a simple decision model for a small country's petroleum reserve which in addition to the above factors take into account the uncertainty of the country's refining capacity. A complete analytical treatment is feasible for this model, and a specific numerical example is presented for the case of Greece.

Author Keywords: Energy; petroleum; storage

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两位的我都买了。感谢帮忙！

原来这里有，我也下一份儿吧！